However, we saw condo pendings begin to drop last April all the way through September which ended with 295. However, the tale is in the trend.įor the 6 months ending in March of 2021, the number of condo pendings skyrocketed from 218 in October, to 456 in March. After that home sales declined slowly until December and have rebounded slightly so far this year.įor the past 6 months ending in March 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, there was a significant increase in the average monthly number of pending condo sales from 237 to 351. However, March of 2021 had the highest number of home sales in a single month on Maui ever. The average number of homes under contract in a month for those 6 months leading up to March 2021 was 237, in March of 2022 it was 210. 2022 is similar to the comparison of sales noted above. Pendings are the pipeline that tell us how many sales are likely to happen in the next couple of months.Ī comparison of the average number of pending home sales per month for the same 6 months in 2021 vs. Pending sales represent the properties that are under contract but have not yet closed. What are we seeing in the other key data point? _ PENDING SALES:
We don't see that in a comparison of year over year sales. Some folks are talking about a shift in the market. Why is this important? These sales levels have persisted in spite of a consistent lack of sustained inventory and steadily increasing prices. However, for the 6 months just ended compared to the same 6 months in 2021, we averaged 6 sales per month higher this year. August of 2021 was also the end of a summertime surge that consisted of 5 straight months of 200+ condo sales per month. That was the highest number of condo sales in a one-month period since August of 2021 with 186 sales. That is a difference of just under 2% year over year. For the same 6-month period ending in March of 2021, we averaged 103 sales per month.
The sales of single-family homes on Maui for the last 6 months have fluctuated from a low of 85 in February to a high of 118 in December, and we averaged 101 sales per month over that time frame. These properties likely went under contract anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks before closing. Sales are the number of properties that actually closed escrow. To give you a little more perspective, we've compared the most recent trend for the 6 months ending in March 2022, to the same 6-month period ending last year, 2021, to see if we can spot any trends. Anyone who has applied for a loan in the last few years can attest those lenders are being quite strict these days. Credit was also being given away for very little down and no real credit checks. Getting back to supply and demand, it was a buyers' market from 2007, when supply was 9.6 months inventory, through 2010 which reported 8.5 months inventory. Why are we not going to have a bubble? The bubble that was created leading up to the Great Recession had 2 factors that we don't have today: over-supple and easy credit. Additionally, about 40% of the sales on Maui are cash sales and don't have a direct effect on what the buyer can afford. Just for some perspective, the average rate back in 2006 and 6.41%. The rate did drop in 20, but we are still at historically low rates. The rate for the same month in 2019 was 4.27%. According to Freddie Mac, the conventional fixed rate for March was 4.17%. We are currently seeing multiple offers on our listings and are competing against multiple offers with our buyers, with no slowdown in sight. That means that it is still a strong seller's market. We have less than 2 months' worth of single-family home inventory and less than one month of condo inventory. The law of supply and demand is alive and well on Maui, and across the US for that matter, but let's focus on Maui.
They cite fears like increasing interest rates and potential foreclosures. In 2021 real estate prices continued to climb, and now 3 months into 2022, people are wondering what is happening, and what can we expect to happen?įor months clients and some folks outside the real estate industry have questioned just how long prices can increase and even raised the specter of the ever dreaded "bubble'. Is Maui's real estate market crashing or cruising?Īs most people who are even tangentially following real estate prices know, the value of your investment(s) literally started to skyrocket in late 2020.